The Bruised Brother elsewhere on the Internet

I'm really proud of this comment I made on this post:

“advanced” stats are called “advanced” for reasons that i couldn’t tell you. we all seem comfortable talking about goalie save percentages and goals against average, yet we bristle at the thought of what a player’s points per 60 or goals for % is.

as J.J. said and i would like to emphasize, advanced stats are absolutely NOT crucial to appreciating and enjoying the game. i had a lot of fun watching hockey before i ever heard the word Corsi, but considering the direction that hockey analytics seems very likely headed, i decided to familiarize myself with them. you likely won’t ever see me searching out Corsi or any of those numbers myself because that’s just not how i describe the game or interact with other fans. i’ll inevitably say something dumb in the future, but generally, i just listen when the discussions move toward player comparisons using these metrics. considering i’m also learning to play hockey myself, i’m also slowly gaining a more complete understanding of tactics. granted, that process will be long, slow, and arduous, but that’s just how i engage with the game.

as for the stats themselves, i do find it helpful to distinguish between the different kind of non-traditional stats. most of the traditional stats are just simply counting stats—goals, assists, points, plus-minus, PIM, and the like. goalie stats can help ease you into how certain metrics are calculated: GAA is simply GA/60 minutes played for a goalie, or how many goals a goalie gives up on average per game. when talking about rate stats for skaters, these usually manifest as G/60 or P/60 or A1/60 for primary assists and A2/60 for secondary assists. you’ve got percentages, which there are a ton of: shooting %, save %, goals for/ against %. then you have the possession stats Corsi and Fenwick and all the various metrics associated with them like quality of competition (QUALCOMP). this is a lot of name-dropping, i admit, so don’t fret if you didn’t understand it the first time. the thing i hope you take away from this paragraph is that “advanced” stats encompass a lot of ways of looking at the numbers you’re already familiar with, like goals and points, and seeing what patterns emerge as well as looking at other numbers like shots and shot differentials. they’re just different ways of looking at players and the game.

the inevitable strawman that seems to pop up in the debate over advanced stats concerns their predictive power. when someone says that Corsi is the best and most reliable indicator of long-term predictability or repeatability for players and teams, they mean it exactly as it sounds: it’s the best long-term indicator. compiling all the players’ Corsi and goalie stats and throwing them into a machine can give Vegas betting odds, but it won’t tell us if the Red Wings are going to win opening night against Buffalo, or the Winter Classic against the Maple Leafs, or Lidstrom night against the Avalanche. dealing with hockey on a game by game and period by period basis, the numbers have almost no value because periods and games are examples of small sample sizes that swing the numbers into a wild variance. the numbers can tell us who will likely make the playoffs, and even to a certain extent how far teams will go in the playoffs, but even in the long-term, there is still a level of uncertainty in their predictive power over the influence of the outcome of a hockey game, season, or playoff series.

so to answer your questions: advanced stats usually refer to anything that doesn’t show up on NHL.com’s stats pages that can still tell us something useful about players and teams. they’re important for the information they tell us, but always keep in mind that no one number can possibly capture everything in a hockey game. even advanced stats need context and proper interpretation to be utilized to their full analytical potential. but they’re not absolutely crucial to watching and enjoying a hockey game or season.

--uvgt2bkdnme

Shawn Burr

The Red Wings family lost Shawn Burr too soon. George Malik has a wonderful write-up commemorating his time with the Red Wings as a player, as a person, and as Red Wings alumni president, coming back to the organization he spent 11 seasons with as a player.

I was only 4 years old by the time Burr moved on from the Red Wings as a player, and even then, I wasn't really into hockey until later in the '90s. So I'll defer to the people who saw and knew him to be an outstanding human being.

Requiescat in pace

Perfect Game for the Perfect Human: 10-12-13 vs. Philadelphia

It's been a foregone conclusion for a long time now that Nicklas Lidstrom's number 5 is going to hang from the rafters at Joe Louis Arena (and the new arena, projected to be finished in 2017). After deciding not to do the number retirement ceremony last season because the wounds of the lockout were still so very fresh, the Red Wings will retire it this season but have yet to announce a date. In the spirit of trying to find material to write about during the offseason, I'll go game by game on the Red Wings' schedule (home games, obviously) and weigh the merits and pitfalls of holding the ceremony before that game.

October 12, 2013: 7:00ET vs. the Philadelphia Flyers

Wouldn't it be nice to shove highlights of the 1997 Stanley Cup Finals right in the faces of Flyers fans?

Once more, with feeling.

I should get back on topic. Moreso than the first two opponents in the Sabres and in the Coyotes, Philadelphia would be a grand opponent to host the number retirement. Compared to the lack of history between the Red Wings and Sabres on the ice and despite the recent success Lidstrom and the Red Wings had against the Coyotes, Lidstrom helped end Detroit's 42-year Stanley Cup drought with a series sweep of the Flyers in the 1997 Stanley Cup Finals. Even though it's a small sample size 7-game series, and even though that series was 16 years ago, it's still an important part of the Red Wings' modern history, especially in the context of the current run of 22 straight playoff appearances and as the kickstarter of the dynastic run between '97 and '08 and of the Red Wing Renaissance started by Steve Yzerman.

I said this about the first two games, and it'll very likely still apply through all the home games in October: this game is still early enough in the season that it looks like they're trying to get Lidstrom's number up into the rafters where it belongs, and where it should have been last season except for that pesky lockout. (Side note: I'm really tempted to start #peskylockout on Twitter.) Any game in November and beyond could still be a good candidate, but it won't have the "early season game" reason going for it that would support the assumption that the Red Wings want to get this done as soon as possible. What's that quote? "Be quick, but don't hurry." Lidstom's number retirement should be done right, of course, and the Perfect Human will get a perfect number retirement ceremony (assuming the visiting team cooperates), so it shouldn't be rushed, but there really shouldn't be any reason that doesn't involve "Lidstrom can't make it" to delay the ceremony very long into the season.

Pretty much the only reason I wouldn't want to use this game as the number retirement game is the possibility that the Red Wings would lose to Steve Mason. Any special significance attached to any game has the risk of being at least partially ruined by the home team losing, but I most certainly wouldn't want to taint the Perfect Human's record by having "Red Wings losing to Steve Mason and the Flyers on Lidstrom number retirement night" become a part of his perfect biography. Then again, there's also the narrative of most Red Wings teams over the past decade losing to teams they should beat handily.

Should the Red Wings retire Lidstrom's number before this game? MAYBE.

Perfect Game for the Perfect Human: 10-10-13 vs. Phoenix

It's been a foregone conclusion for a long time now that Nicklas Lidstrom's number 5 is going to hang from the rafters at Joe Louis Arena (and the new arena, whenever that's built). After deciding not to do the number retirement ceremony last season because the wounds of the lockout were still so very fresh,* the Red Wings will retire it this season but have yet to announce a date. In the spirit of trying to find material to write about during the offseason, I'll go game by game on the Red Wings' schedule (home games, obviously) and weigh the merits and pitfalls of holding the ceremony before that game.

October 10, 2013: 7:30ET vs. the Phoenix Coyotes

I should clarify that the number retirement is in Detroit, not* in Phoenix.

There's certainly a history of recent postseason success against the Coyotes that could make part of the career highlight montage. And there's the fact that Phoenix has basically become a second home for the Detroit Red Wings, so I guess you could say that one bad thing about the new divisional alignment is that Detroit will have fewer home games since they won't play in Phoenix as often.

This game is Detroit's second home game of the season, but 8 days after their home opener. Since they won't have opening night festivities to deal with like against Buffalo, they could have a night dedicated to Lidstrom AND still have the number retirement happen as soon as possible. Granted, considering Detroit goes on a brief road trip after the home opener, it won't be as soon as we'd like, but we can always complain about other scheduling issues that are bound to come up during a Winter-Olympic-break-including regular season.

The other thing I've been considering but haven't been able to find information for is if Detroit already has a schedule of promotions they plan on holding during the season (aside from the obvious Winter Classic related events and the Winter Classic itself). Might be awkward to hold Lidstrom's number retirement on the same night they do a hypothetical Pavel Datsyuk bobblehead night. (Side note: If someone can make, market, promote, and distribute Datsyuk dangle-puck dolls or make paddle balls except with Datsyuk's stick and a puck, I will love you forever.) On the other hand, it would be fitting if they held the retirement the same night as a hypothetical Swedish Heritage Night.

Should the Red Wings retire Lidstrom's number before this game? MAYBE.

*RIP Ruslan Salei

Addendum: Yzerman's number retirement ceremony was announced on August 31, 2006, and the ceremony was schedule for January 2, 2007. I'm not necessarily arguing that Lidstrom's number retirement announcement and game selection will follow a similar pattern, but it's something to go off of. At this rate, I could possibly get through about 15 games or so before we hear an official announcement for Lidstrom's ceremony date. If I could, I would use one of my Winging It in Motown BOLD Predictions to select which date the ceremony would be, but I don't think the Red Wings are going to wait that long before making an official announcement.

Perfect Game for the Perfect Human: 10-2-13 vs. Buffalo

It's been a foregone conclusion for a long time now that Nicklas Lidstrom's number 5 is going to hang from the rafters at Joe Louis Arena (and the new arena, whenever that's built). After deciding not to do the number retirement ceremony last season because the wounds of the lockout were still so very fresh,* the Red Wings will retire it this season but have yet to announce a date. In the spirit of trying to find material to write about during the offseason, I'll go game by game on the Red Wings' schedule (home games, obviously) and weigh the merits and pitfalls of holding the ceremony before that game.

October 2, 2013: 8:00ET vs. the Buffalo Sabres

Home opener. Using this game is quite bold and amibitious. You have the opening night ceremonies with the introduction of the entire Detroit Red Wings lineup and then another 30-60 minutes or so for Lidstrom's number retirement ceremony? I would hate to be the person in charge of coordinating everything if this were my assignment.

That Detroit will be playing in the Eastern Conference this season no doubt will interest many fans because we'll all see opponents we hardly ever did under the old divisional alignment. Unfortunately for Lidstrom's number retirement, this fact means that teams like the Sabres won't hold any special significance as "the perfect game" for the ceremonies. Of course, there's also the argument that the opponent really doesn't matter. I loved that Steve Yzerman's number retirement happened against the Anaheim Ducks because I got to watch the ceremony on local TV (since Los Angeles also gets the Anaheim games). But aside from that benefit for me, nothing about the Ducks really stood out in terms of Yzerman's career because most of what spawned the current rivalry with the Ducks happened in the '07 and '09 playoffs after Yzerman retired. If the opponent really mattered, maybe it would have happened against the Colorado Avalanche or Washington Capitals (when Yzerman won the Conn Smythe in the '98 playoffs). In Lidstrom's case, he probably has more teams with significant meaning than Yzerman did--the Pittsburgh Penguins, the same Colorado Avalanche, the Carolina Hurricanes--but it's still difficult to argue for a particular game just based on the opponent.

The best thing going for opening night's bid to retire Lidstrom's number is that it doesn't delay something that should have happened last season but for a wholly stupid and unnecessary lockout. Number 5 takes its rightful place up in the rafters where it should already be. NBC Sports Network broadcasting this game also provides a nice push as it potentially showcases the career and legacy of one of the greatest players ever to a wide audience hungry for hockey after what always feels like a terribly long offseason. But I think the sheer logistics of combining a number retirement ceremony with opening night festivities combined with each ceremony detracting from the other by holding them both in the same night means this game is out of the running.

Should the Red Wings retire Lidstrom's number before this game? NO.

*Considering Lidstrom endured two lockouts during his NHL career, I think holding it during the shortened season would have fit pretty well, despite the twisted symbolism.

H2H3

Background reading.

I participated in this during H2H2, and boy was it a fun time, even though I couldn't make the game with everyone else. I don't remember what the propositions I made were, but it came out to $47, which I then rounded up to a flat $50, which was just enough for poor college student me to be able to donate comfortably without stretching myself thin.

The guys who run it are great to work with, and while it is a little annoying getting letters mailed to me from Children's Hospital of Michigan every other month asking for more (especially when they address me as "Ms. Joseph Cadabes"), the cause is worth it and it's a fun way for many people to give to charity. As is often touted during any fundraising drive, "every little bit counts" and H2H3 is no exception.

In case you decided to skip the background reading I conveniently provided for you (why did you?!), there are 11 games starting in December that will count as "pledge games." During these pledge games, you can make certain bets such as "$2 for every Jimmy Howard save" that will accrue through the listed pledge games. At the end, you'll receive an email with your calculated donation and how you can send it out. Of course, there's always the option to set a minimum standard in case your bets don't come through; for example, if you pledge "$3 for every broken stick" during these games, and no one breaks a single one, you can donate a "minimum $3" if you so choose. And of course, you can bypass the bets all together and just give your donation without the contingencies.

I made my pledges. Have you?

$1 per PIM by every former Red Wing. Minimum $6.

$3 per point by Stephen Weiss against the Florida Panthers. Minimum $6.

$10 bonus if Gustavsson is credited with the win against the Toronto Maple Leafs on 12/21. $5 more if a shutout.

$5 bonus if Lidstrom's number retirement happens at one of the pledge games.

Happy donating!